While the past several days have been almost idyllic, with sunny skies, warm temperatures and moderate humidity, the next several days might not be quite so enjoyable unless you’re a duck.
According to the National Weather Service’s field office in Binghamton, a round of intense showers should hit the region tonight, bringing about an inch of rain to the area along with winds of 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.
The storm, which is moving up the Atlantic coast, will be followed by another wet and windy weather pattern on Monday — this one moving in from the Midwest. In all, the National Weather Service predicts, rain is likely for Central New York through Thursday evening with the region getting a total of two or three inches of rain over the course of the storms.
Areas to our northwest, along Lake Ontario could see more than four inches of rain while areas to our southeast, toward New York City are also expected to see more and heavier rain as well, the National Weather Service added.
Such an extensive pattern of wet weather is highly unusual for the middle of summer, without a tropical storm, according to AccuWeather Founder, President and Chairman Dr. Joel N. Myers.
The pattern of persistent downpours, beginning with tonight’s rainstorm is likely to disrupt travel, hinder outdoor plans and projects and put summer heat on hold in the Northeast into early August, Myers said, adding that it could also lead to some flooding in some areas.
The storm system moving up from the Atlantic coast will coincide with a shift in the jet stream, marking the beginning of an extended period of wet, humid conditions, forcing drenching rain northward in its path. The combination of drenching rain and gusty winds could cause sporadic power outages, especially where strong thunderstorms become intertwined with the storm system, Myers added.
On Sunday, the rainstorm will spread across much of northern New York state and much of the balance of New England.
People with outdoor plans or heading to the beach this weekend should be prepared for wet weather during part of their trip, Myers added. The combination of rain and poor visibility may cause vehicle traffic to slow to a crawl at times and airline delays due to a low cloud ceiling are likely as well at times.
At the same time farther west, a storm from the Plains will create a swath of rain and thunderstorms over the Midwest to the southern and central Appalachians. This is the same storm system that produced severe weather on Thursday and Friday in the Central states. Localized flooding downpours may also also occur with this storm, said AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok.
By Monday, the vast majority of the Northeast will be enveloped in showers and thunderstorms, when a pattern of persistent rainfall and a broadening risk of flooding problems may ramp up.
While the pattern may not bring rain every day everywhere, rainfall is likely to be above average, and people may get frustrated by the frequency of showers and thunderstorms as far as outdoor plans, sporting events and construction projects are concerned, Pastelok added.
Enough rain is likely to fall in many areas to wipe out any rainfall deficit this summer.
“The pattern is likely to have staying power through the end of July and may persist well into August,” Pastelok said.
Small streams may surge to bank full and large rivers may even approach flood stage in some cases. Locations prone to flash flooding should be extra vigilant.
When asked if long stretches of sunny, hot days are over in the Northeast for the season, Pastelok responded with, “It’s probably more likely that summer is going to take a long break with some hope for sunny, hot weather during the middle to latter part of August.”
“There will be still be some very warm days during the wet pattern, when the sun is out for several hours,” Pastelok said.